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Welcome Part II
Added Date: Nov 9, 2011 | Category: Radikalisme Nusantara Cyber | Viewed: (1328) times
So why do I think we can build an Ecat-like LENR device?
There is a lot of information currently on Piantelli, Defkalion, and Rossi (not all reliable, you have to sift through), and from that information here are my opinions on why reproduction of an Ecat-like device is possible for us to do. For the purpose of this discussion I’ll assume Rossi’s Ecat is legit.
I’m going to argue that I think there is a good chance Rossi is trying to make as much money as possible quickly because he believes the secret of the Ecat will be out of the bag soon. Case in point, I also think Defkalion has a working reactor because it was not that difficult to figure out, and they are also trying to make as much money as possible before competition heats up. Finally, I believe Piantelli is close to a design himself which, if we follow the timeline, must have been based off of Rossi and Forcardi’s work. Fortunately, according to Piantelli, his design requires no catalyst. All these things to me suggest a more than a small chance of us being able to make a working Nickel-Hydrogen Low Energy Nuclear Reactor.
For one reason or another Rossi has been unable to get a WIPO patent for his invention, but he claims to have IP that he can somehow defend. With the changes in U.S. patent law I'm unsure what that means. For sure he can't wait for that patent, he has to act now. From this fact and Rossi’s comments and actions over the past 10 months, what I believe may be true is that at some point Rossi realized that the ingredients for a working LENR device were not that difficult for most scientists/engineers to figure out with or without the patent (probably reinforced when he realized Defkalion likely had the core). Once that occurs different flavors of the Ecat would be hard to defend against with patents. Along that line of reasoning he figured out that time is money and his best hope of making money quickly was to sell the most expensive versions of his Ecat and sell them quickly. So let’s see, 2 million times 100 MW plants/year is 200 million Euros/year if he can produce the 1 MW plants at that rate. Not too shabby. Additionally, that jives with nuclear regulatory concerns (business to business is easier), so he can justify that strategy. This is good money for a small operation so long as there is no competition. However, once anybody else learns how to make the core then competition will drive the price down, and let’s face it according to Rossi himself, nothing is really that expensive in the Ecat. Consequently right now his profit margin is presumably comfortably high. However once competition comes in, well it's hard to make a large profit selling hamburgers unless you sell millions and he clearly isn't there yet. This line of reasoning is not accusing Rossi of greediness, he’s actually accelerating the dissemination of his technology because, well, raise your hand if you think Rossi’s customers are not going to take a look at the cores regardless of any agreements. He’s also making a profit and establishing working capital for whatever the next phase of this phenomena turns into.
Let’s look at some points of conflict. Defkalion claims to know how to make a working core even though Rossi claims not to have given them the technology. Taken at face value this seems contradictory. However, if we suppose that the "catalyst" is not that difficult to figure out, the apparent conflict disappears. At this point we have no reason to believe either party is lying. Putting that assumption together with Dr. Piantelli's assertion, that no catalyst is required and the only critical parameter is the Nickel granule structure (for at least a semi-working version), one can start to believe that Defkalion re-inventing the core may indeed be the case.
Here is another interesting piece of evidence. Defkalion is offering undeniable proof of LENR to anybody that can put $500K Euros in an escrow account. That seems a bit odd for an entity that supposedly has nothing. I can assure you there are people right now looking into this. If there is something there we should find out soon. In fact according to Defkalion correspondence with a Buildecat.com source, Defkalion said this,
"..., we will welcome direct contact with any entity (yours included) that is willing and able to introduce itself for further talks. To give you an indication, from the more than 6,000 contacts, we have a refined list of willing and able legal entities (around 380), with which we are in talks (due diligence) to ascertain their strength and capabilities to execute this project in their country of operation.
Furthermore, if you have a University affiliation whose Statute includes elaborating R&D in the field of LENR, we welcome such an exchange from the relevant Dean and/or Department Head - although this would be for consideration in the future (Q3 of 2012)."
A theory. Defkalion re-engineered the core, and it wasn’t that hard. Defkalion knows full well that licensing agreements mean absolutely nothing (that's basically what they are selling) unless there is essentially no competition to undermine that. They are selling licenses for around ~40Million Euros per 300K units/year per geographical area. If anybody else figured out how to make the core then those investors quite likely stand to lose millions. The theory continues on to say that they are trying to weed out the mom/pop outfits and want people that can make quick 40 Million Euro decisions before somebody comes up with competition. After all they figured it out so it's likely they believe somebody else will too.
It’s not a horrible business proposal by the way. 300K units at say 500 EU a piece will provide 150 million in gross income. Assuming modest expenses and the one time licensing fee (I presume it’s one time) that could be 50 to 70 million net profit in the first year. Of course that plant would have to set up production quickly and hope that mom/pop shops don’t pop up during that time. Again in this situation time is money.
But Rossi is competing with them you say. Again another Buildecat.com source:
Thank you for your inquiry. We do not operate in the US market and as such there is little we can do for your investment group. The best is to go directly to Andrea Rossi as his company is dealing with the US market. Should your group be operating in a different country with an interest to make the investment there, please indicate to us the country and provide us with an overview of the company discussed. We will have to conduct our due diligence and to see how it compares with other contending companies for that given country - so as to avoid unnecessary efforts and complications. After we have received this information from you, we will send a NDA to be signed by the Principal of the company entering into talks with us and from then on embark on commercial and technical talks.
Thank you for your interest
Defkalion Green Technologies"
There is probably more going on behind the scenes than publicly known between Rossi and Defkalion for Defkalion to enter into legal agreements with clients for that much money and risk law suits. My best guess is that they are offering Rossi royalties under the original agreement and Rossi is probably okay with that. If you do the math there is more than enough market space for everybody and Rossi can’t address everybody. However, anybody investing with them should be aware of the risks involved with Rossi.
Clearly these are theories and time will test them out, but I think the current sea of circumstantial evidence suggests that we at least have a hope of making an Ecat-like device if we try. And that's what this site is about. Of course this could all be a horrible misunderstanding or the most elaborate hoax ever, but if you believe that you wouldn’t have read this entire piece.
Author: Buildecat.com Admin
Added by: Admin
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